The Sun Could Enter An Even More Dangerous Phase Than Solar Maximum

Like the other celestial bodies in our solar system and beyond, humans have been studying the sun for thousands of years. Scientists can now track the star's 11-year solar cycle — one of the many characteristics of the sun that involves the progression and regression of sunspots and solar flares — to research how the sun affects Earth and its climate. While solar activity peaks during solar maximum, some space weather forecasters warn that a newly discovered "battle zone" period — which occurs when two Hale cycle bands compete against each other — will bring even more dangerous conditions into 2026-27.

A team of scientists at Lynker Space, which provides real-time space weather forecasts, has been analyzing the magnetic bands that form during the Hale cycle. Lasting about 22 years, the Hale cycle comprises two successive solar cycles, each of which ends with the sun's magnetic field flipping. The magnetic bands are often overlooked in favor of monitoring sunspots, but by studying the Hale cycle bands, the team was able to correctly predict the onset of solar maximum, which began in October 2024.

During their analysis, the Lynker Space scientists determined that magnetic Hale cycle bands appear near the sun's poles — one in each hemisphere — around the time of solar maximum. For the next 17 to 19 years, the bands creep toward the equator and create an imbalance, allowing sunspots to form. Since solar maximum occurs roughly every 11 years, another set of oppositely polarized bands appears near the poles and migrates toward the equator and the first bands. The two bands in each hemisphere reduce the imbalance, preventing sunspot formation, but they also end up clashing, creating what the scientists are calling the "battle zone."

The new term "battle zone" references the period of enhanced geomagnetic activity that occurs after sunspot maximum. One of the results of this increased activity is that the sun will continue to have a high number of solar flares for several years following solar maximum. Solar flares affect Earth by emitting magnetic fields and X-rays that produce geomagnetic storms. When these storms reach the planet, the aurora borealis becomes more prominent in the night sky, even in locations where it's usually impossible to see. Additionally, magnetic storms from solar flares can disrupt power grids, interfere with radio transmissions, and damage satellites, which can even make them fall out of orbit and back to Earth.

More dangerous, though, are the giant coronal holes that develop during the battle zone because of the clashing Hale cycle bands. Appearing as dark spots on the sun in soft X-ray and extreme UV images, these regions are less dense than the sun's surrounding plasma, and their open, unipolar magnetic fields allow solar wind — a nonstop stream of charged particles — to escape the star's atmosphere at high speeds. 

While solar winds affect Earth much in the same way as solar flares, the Lynker Space team warns that they could be more commonplace and stronger while the battle zone is active. The scientists also warn that even low orbit and ground satellite operators should stay alert. After all, the combination of solar flares and coronal holes could create a geomagnetic storm as strong as the 1859 Carrington Event, which was one of the biggest threats to Earth from space.