Is The Farmers' Almanac Actually Reliable?

For more than 200 years, Americans have turned to the "Farmers' Almanac" for long-range weather forecasts. The timeless publication releases a new edition every year with predictions for the best days to garden, fish, stargaze, and more, promising the inside scoop on climate conditions that won't come to pass for months. You're probably familiar with the work meteorologists do to create the forecasts you see on news outlets and weather apps, but the "Farmers' Almanac" uses a completely different method.

The "Farmers' Almanac" (not to be confused with the similarly titled "Old Farmer's Almanac") was founded in 1818 by David Young, a poet, teacher, and astronomer. Very little is known today about Young, who died in 1852 with no descendants, but he is responsible for inventing the weather prediction formula that the almanac uses to this day. What's the formula? Well, nobody knows ... almost nobody, that is.

The "Farmers' Almanac" weather forecasts are based on a formula that Young called his "weather canon." The publication is highly secretive about this formula, which is purportedly known only to a single weather prognosticator whose identity is concealed behind the pseudonym, Caleb Weatherbee, but the "Farmers' Almanac" has offered vague clues to the weather canon. Its website states that it incorporates some of the main types of weather forecasting, such as observations of past weather trends, but also factors in the position of the moon, tidal activity, sunspots, and the positions of the planets. If that all sounds a bit vague, it's because it is.

The trouble with the "Farmers' Almanac" and similar publications like the "Old Farmer's Almanac," is that they promise too much. Attempting to predict the weather beyond a range of two weeks is futile because of the number of unpredictable variables involved. The National Weather Service caps forecasts at 16 days, yet these almanacs are generating forecasts a whole year in advance. And while some publications, like the "Old Farmer's Almanac" have begun incorporating satellite data into its forecasts, the "Farmers' Almanac" has not wavered from David Young's 1818 weather canon. There may be substance to this formula, for instance, sunspots do affect the climate on Earth, but with how vague the publication has been on details, it's difficult to evaluate its data.

A review of the "Farmers' Almanac" conducted by the climatologist Peter Goble of the Colorado Climate Center showed that the publication's accuracy was basically a coin toss. Goble compared the almanac's forecast from the years 2019–2024 and compared them to 10,000 random number generator simulations. The "Farmers' Almanac" was only more accurate than 55% of the randomly-generated forecasts.

Despite not holding up under scientific scrutiny, the "Farmers' Almanac" is still widely-read. It's worth noting that most of its content isn't actually centered on weather forecasts, offering tips on gardening, cooking, and caring for farm animals. Perhaps it's best to enjoy those sections, and ignore the few pages of vague forecasting.