2018 Winter Olympics Daily Update: How Our Predictions Compared to the Actual Results

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Day 16 (Feb 25, 2018)

On Day 16, the final day of the 2018 Olympics, we accurately predicted two medals in the four featured events.

Norway's Marit Bjorgen won gold in cross-country skiing (30km mass start) and became the most decorated Winter Olympian in history. With five medals in PyeongChang, she now has 15 total medals over the course of her Olympic career, which began at the 2002 games in Salt Lake City. Her gold medal in the 30km mass start was her eighth overall, which moves her into a three-way tie with Ole Einar Bjoerndalen and Bjoern Daehlie for for the most gold medals in Olympics history.

We accurately predicted a German squad - led by driver Nico Walther - to win silver in four-man bobsledding, though they shared second place honors in a tie with South Korea. The only major surprises were Germany winning silver in men's ice hockey (the country's best-ever finish in that event) and both South Korea and Japan medaling in women's curling.

We concluded the Winter Olympics with 72 total medal predictions, just shy of the Associated Press's 76 and Sports Illustrated's 73. We'll have a full recap of the 2018 games this week. Stay tuned!

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Day 15 (Feb 24, 2018)

Day 15 brought more of the same for us - close finishes and barely-off predictions. In total, we picked four gold medalists, but the overall table featured too many purple blotches, indications that our projections were off.

The highlight of the day was ester Ledecka's gold medal victory in women's parallel giant slalom. The Czech athlete is primarily a snowboarder, but stunned the world by winning the women's super-G final (in skiing) last weekend, borrowing Mikaela Shiffrin's skis in the process. Ledecka traded those skis for her primary weapon of choice - the snowboard - yesterday and became the first woman to win two gold medals in separate sport during the same Olympics.

Sports Illustrated (72) pulled ahead of us in the total medal predictions tally. We're sitting in third place with 70, while the Associated Press still leads the pack with 74.

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Day 14 (Feb 23, 2018)

Day 14 was another average day of predictions for us. Many of our picks were only one off, with Yevgenia Medvedeva (our projected gold medalist) slipping to second place in ladies figure skating and Norway (predicted to win gold) taking silver in the men's biathlon relay. Norway was heavily favored, but Emil Hegle Svendsen missed two shots in the final round, providing an easy path to the top of the podium for Sweden.

We successfully predicted a pair of bronze medalists - Germany in the men's biathlon relay and Fanny Smith in women's ski cross - and the silver medalist in men's speed skating, Haavard Lorentzen. We also predicted Switzerland to win bronze in men's curling. Canada, known for its prowess in the sport, lost the bronze medal match, marking the team's worst Olympic performance since it fell off the podium in 1924 (though curling wasn't included in the Olympic program between 1928 and 1994).

We're still a few medal predictions behind the Associated Press, which leads the pack with 71. Our 66 accurate predictions are still a hair better than Sports Illustrated's 64.

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Day 13 (Feb 22, 2018)

In the 10 events held on Day 13, we accurately predicted eight medals.

The United States won gold in women's ice hockey, beating Canada in an epic round of penalty shots and securing the team's first gold medal in 20 years. That win, plus Finland's victory in the bronze medal match, gave us a perfect prediction for women's ice hockey.

Men's slalom featured a major upset with our top two picks - Marcel Hirscher and Henrik Kristoffersen - both missing gates. In Nordic combined, Norway was heavily favored, but Germany squeaked ahead, winning gold and forcing Norway to second place. The two countries are tied with 13 gold medals during the 2018 Olympics.

Sports Illustrated picked 10 medals correctly yesterday. The Associated Press still leads with 67 total medals predicted, followed by Sciencing (63) and Sports Illustrated (60).

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Day 12 (Feb 21, 2018)

With no major upsets on Day 12, we had five correct medal predictions, barely edging out the Associated Press (4) and Sports Illustrated (3). Lindsey Vonn won bronze in the women's downhill event - consistent with our predictions - and became the oldest female athlete to medal in Alpine skiing.

Day 12 featured a handful of team and relay events, which are much harder to predict because the team rosters are not always consistent between the regular season, World Cup events and Olympic competition. Still, we picked the gold medalists in both the men's and women's team pursuit speed skating events. We also accurately predicted Finland to win the bronze medal match in women's ice hockey.

Only a few days remain in the 2018 Winter Olympics. We're sitting behind the Associated Press's 61 accurate predictions, but our 55 toals medals still lead Sports Illustrated's 50.

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Day 11 (Feb 20, 2018)

Day 11 wasn't our best for exact predictions, but our medal table was almost entirely "green," meaning our predictions were close across the board.

We did predict the gold and bronze medals in short track speed skating (women's 3000m relay). Aside from that, we had a handful of picks that were a medal or two off. Norway, predicted to win gold in biathlon, won silver. Cassie Sharpe, projected to win silver in women's halfpipe skiing, ended up on top of the podium.

Germany had a clean sweep in the nordic combined event. The country now has 23 total medals in the 2018 Olympics, six behind Norway's 29. We've predicted Germany to lead the final overall medal table with 42, and Norway to lead the gold medal count with 16.

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Day 10 (Feb 19, 2018)

We predicted two gold medals out of the three events held on Day 10.

Norway ranked in its third gold medal in three days, dominating the men's team large hill ski jumping event. Our other two picks in that event swapped positions, with Germany winning silver and Poland winning Bronze.

Norway now leads the 2018 Olympics overall medal table with 29. We've predicted that they'll win a total of 36 medals (16 gold) when the games wrap up this week.

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Day 9 (Feb 18, 2018)

Day 9 was our best yet. We successfully predicted the entire podium for both men's giant slalom and women's 500m speed skating.

Martin Fourcade once again redeemed his early struggles in the Olympics, winning gold in the men's 15km mass start biathlon event. Norway continues to dominate in cross-country skiing, taking home its second gold medal in as many days.

The Associated Press still leads with 50 accurate predictions, but - with 46 - we're closing the gap and distancing ourselves from Sports Illustrated (41).

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Day 8 (Feb 17, 2018)

After a lackluster couple days for our projections, we bounced back on Day 8, accurately predicting eight total medals, four of them gold.

Ester Ledecka offered the most stunning upset of the day, winning gold in the women's super-G event, despite a 34th-place prediction. Even Ledecka - known for her skills on a snowboard, not skis - was shocked by the victory.

We predicted the entire podium for men's figure skating, with Yuzuru Hanyu repeating his success from Sochi and notching back-to-back gold medals.

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Day 7 (Feb 16, 2018)

Day 7 was below average for our us, with only three accurate medal predictions in total. Many of our predictions were off by one medal position or two.

American skier Mikaela Shiffrin - heavily favored to win the women's slalom event - fell to fourth place, with our picks to win silver and bronze sliding into first and second place, respectively. Sung-Bin Yun won South Korea's first gold of the 2018 Olympics, smashing the competition in men's skeleton. We accurately picked Michela Moioli to win gold in women's snowboard cross.

In the women's 5,000m speed skating event, Visser Esmee (predicted 26th by us) snatched the gold. Our pick to win the event, Martina Sablikova, fell to second, with Natalya Voronina taking home the bronze, just as we predicted.

The Associated Press still leads the medal predictions race with 36. With 30 total medals predicted, we've barely edged ahead of Sports Illustrated, which sits at 29.

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Day 6 (Feb 15, 2018)

We accurately predicted five medal winners for Day 6, including the gold medalists in figure skating, luge and men's speed skating (10,000m).

In the men's biathlon (20 km) event, Johannes Thingnes Bo redeemed himself after suffering four penalties on Day 2 of the Olympics. Thingnes Bo edged out our top pick, Martin Fourcade, who amassed a pair of penalties and fell out of medal contention. In the women's biathlon event, Hanna Oeberg pulled off a huge upset, winning gold despite our predicted result for her (36th place). Canadian Ted-Jan Bloemen ended the Netherlands' dominance in speed skating, staying true to our predictions and winning gold in the 10,000m event. The men's snowboard cross event saw a pair of upsets as well, likely because a major crash in the semifinal knocked our top pick out of contention.

The Associated Press had a solid day, raising its tally to 32 medals predicted. With 27, Sciencing currently sits in tie with Sports Illustrated.

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Day 5 (Feb 14, 2018)

We only had one exact medal prediction on Day 5, but our projections were pretty close across the board, making our Day 5 table the "greenest" yet (the most near-matches).

In each of the four events, our predicted gold medalist still landed on the podium, with the only major upsets coming in Nordic combined and women's speed skating. Our top three were correct in men's doubles luge, though the positions were swapped, as Toni Eggert and Sascha Benecken (heavily favored to win) fell to third place.

Sports Illustrated still sits at 20 accurate medal picks so far. With 22 total medal predictions, we still sit behind the Associated Press, whose tally rose to 24 yesterday.

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Day 4 (Feb 13, 2018)

With five accurate gold medal predictions and nine medals in total, Day 4 was our best yet. We successfully predicted winners in the cross-country (men's and women's), mixed curling, women's luge and women's halfpipe events. Our silver medal picks were solid as well, with four accurate projections. The only major upset of the day was Patrick Roest, who won silver in the men's 1500m speed skating event. We picked him to place 30th.

Canada's victory in mixed curling makes it the first-ever nation to win the event, seeing as PyeongChang marks the event's Olympic debut. Alex Gough became the first Canadian to reach the podium in luge. She took home the bronze.

This solid day of predictions bumped our total count to 21, and put us in the mix with some big names. We surpassed Sports Illustrated (20 accurate medal predictions), and sit just behind the Associated Press (23).

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Day 3 (Feb 12, 2018)

Our predictions had a solid showing on Day 3. We successfully picked gold medal winners in the biathlon, men's moguls, women's ski jumping and women's slopestyle events. In total, we accurately predicted seven medals in the day's seven events.

But even our remaining predictions weren't far off. In the women's 1500m speed skating event, we predicted Miho Takagi to take home gold and Marrit Leenstra to win silver, but they ended up winning silver and bronze, respectively. In women's ski jumping - where we successfully predicted Maren Lundby to win gold - our silver and bronze picks got swapped, with Katharina Althaus winning silver and Sara Takanashi winning bronze. We would have had a perfect prediction.

In the women's biathlon event (10km pursuit), Laura Dahlmeier won gold, marking her second trip to the top of the podium; she took home gold in the 7.5km sprint on Day 1.

The only major upset of the day came in the men's biathlon (12.5km pursuit) event, where Sebastian Samuelsson (predicted 46th) won silver.

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Day 2 (Feb 11, 2018)

On Day 2, we correctly predicted Red Gerard to win gold. Max Parrot and Mark McMorris - who took home silver and bronze, respectively - both hadn't participated in World Cup slopestyle events, meaning we didn't have the data to create predictions for them. Gerard, just 17 years ol, is the youngest snowboarder to win a gold Olympic medal.

In the men's 30km skiathlon event, we successfully predicted a Nordic sweep, also correctly selecting Martin Johnsrud Sundby and Hans Christer Holund to win silver and bronze, respectively.

The men's singles luge event featured a major upset, with David Gleirscher (predicted 12th) winning gold and Chris Mazdzer (predicted 18th) winning silver. Our project winner, Felix Loch, faltered on his last run and fell to fifth place. Mazdzer is the first-ever male American singles luge medalist.

Penalties cost our top two picks in the men's 10km biathlon event. Martin Fourcade and Johannes Thingnes Bo each suffered penalties during the shooting bouts, which ultimately thrashed their chances of securing a medal. Fourcade missed three shots, while Thingnes Bo amassed a total of four penalties.

All in all, our early predictions were solid. With so many athletes competing in each event, and results separated by fractions of seconds, most medalists were still among our top-10 picks.

Check back daily to see how our data scientist's predictions performed relative to the actual events in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

Day 1 (Feb 10, 2018)

Our predictions for Day 1 of the 2018 Winter Olympics were a bit mixed. In the women's 15km skiathlon event within cross-country skiing, we successfully projected Charlotte Kalla to win gold and Krista Paramakoski to take home the bronze.

There were a handful of upsets across the board, at least compared to our prediction. In the women's 7.5-km biathlon sprint, Marte Olsbu (predicted 21st) claimed the silver medal. Semyon Elistratov (also projected 21st) took home bronze in the men's short-track speed skating 1500m event. Finally, in the women's 3000m speed skating event, Carlijn Achtereekte won gold, despite our prediction (16th place).

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